Fine scale spatialised prospective modelling - a methodological approach

The main objective of this work is to elaborate a generic methodological approach to build prospective scenarios spatially explicit at a local scale. This approach is based on the scenario method used in prospective studies, and uses methodological techniques developed for the modelling of complex systems. The scenario-development process comprises four steps: construction of the basis, scenario building, giving a spatial dimension to the scenarios, and their evaluation. Applied in the framework of water planning in the Brittany region and more precisely of the application of the Water Planning and Management Schemes (WPMS) on the Blavet watershed, the approach is illustrated here by the example of one explanatory scenario and one normative scenario, both aiming at evaluating the potential impact of the 2006 Common Agricultural Policy and farms enlargement on futures land uses.