Dynamics of a northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) population at the southern limit of its range in Europe

In the context of global changes, defining the source-sink dynamics of populations of emblematic species, such as seabirds, within the limits of their distribution range is often crucial to optimize the priorities of surveys and conservation management, especially in protected areas. However, ringing is often not possible and only simple survey methods, such as the 'apparently occupied sites' method, can be utilized by managers of protected areas and threatened species. Using data collected between 1997 and 2005, we investigated the population dynamics of the northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) at the southern limit of its range on the western French coast, which hosts increasing populations. Using a robust design spatial occupancy model, we estimated the proportion of occupied nests, the rates of nest colonization, nest extinction and the population growth rates of four colonies of the largest population (Ouessant Island). The estimated annual growth rate was high (average 1.049). A deterministic population dynamics model indicated that the observed rapid increase of Ouessant populations cannot be explained by their intrinsic dynamics, which suggested an important role for immigration. Different demographic scenarios provide several lines of evidence that the large northern fulmar population in this Man and Biosphere Reserve is a sink population. The strong increase in a population located at the limits of the species distributional range implies that it functions as a population sink. Inexpensive effective survey methods could allow investigation of the demographic status of seabird populations and provide relevant information for the hierarchization of conservation priorities.