Impact of warming on abundance and occurrence of flatfish populations in the Bay of Biscay (France)

The aim of the present study was to analyse the influence of warming on flatfish populations in the Bay of Biscay. 17 autumn cruises conducted from 1987 to 2006 over the whole shelf of the Bay of Biscay provided data for the abundance and occurrence of adults for twenty flatfish species. Trends in flatfish abundance were analysed with regard to geographic range of populations and interannual fluctuations in abundance were related to seawater temperature. Results showed significant trends in abundance and occurrence for 55% of the flatfish species in the Bay of Biscay. The response to warming of seawater was correlated to geographic ranges of species. While the abundance of the northern temperate species decreased, that of southern ones increased. Moreover, for 40% of the species which densities have significantly changed, abundances were correlated to temperatures in their year of birth, positively for southern species and negatively for northern ones. Last, the abundance of flatfish adults over the Bay of Biscay was compared to previous data on juveniles in the Bay of Vilaine, one of the estuarine nursery ground in this area. For the northern species which have disappeared, the decline in juvenile abundances preceded that of adults by several years, indicating that the recruitment is the process affected. We concluded on a major impact of warming to explain changes in flatfish species abundances. Nevertheless, the impact of fishing interacts with that of climate change because the exploited species appeared to be the most negatively affected.